What is current energy scenario?

Energy plays the most important role in any country’s economic growth, progress and development, poverty eradication and national security. Sichuan’s uninterrupted energy supply is a vital issue for all countries. The key to future economic growth depends on affordable, easily available, environmentally friendly and long-term available energy. Security issues, climate change, and public health all rely heavily on energy. Abundant, cheap, and clean energy is a condition for people to lead a decent life, and it is also a prerequisite for the healthy development of society and economy. In recent decades, rapid economic development has led to ever-increasing energy demand, and as a result, it has increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Due to the lack of oil and natural gas, the world experienced the first and second energy crises in 1973 and 1979 respectively.

According to the recent International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook report. More than 20% of the world’s population or 1.4 billion people do not have access to electricity. Nearly 40% of the global population or 2.7 billion people are mainly in rural areas, and cooking food relies on traditional biomass energy. In order to meet the growing needs of these billions of people away from the grid, development activities in the energy sector are expected to accelerate globally. In the next 20 years, global energy demand is expected to increase by 50%, mainly because hundreds of millions of people in developing countries will buy cars and will lead a life with higher energy consumption. The output of fossil fuels, especially oil, will be difficult to meet people’s needs. Even if fossil fuels can meet the demand, it will cause irreversible climate change. At present, 80% of human energy comes from fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and natural gas, and only 2% comes from wind and solar energy. Therefore, when we need more and more energy, it is necessary to change the types of energy we use.

The lack of energy may not only endanger the economic development of some countries, but also endanger national security and strategic interests. Consumers need sufficient, economical, clean, sustainable and green fuels. Therefore, it is necessary to envisage a new energy model under which the economy can grow sustainably and the industry can be developed without endangering the climate.

Regarding primary energy, there is another point worthy of attention, that is, the uninterrupted supply of energy and energy security, which has attracted the attention of some developing countries and developed countries. In fact, this problem is urgent and needs to be solved more seriously, because primary energy is concentrated in only a few countries. Unfortunately, the primary energy source as an energy source is not evenly distributed all over the world. In fact, some countries have been helplessly marginalized recently due to global price fluctuations, increasingly fierce competition, and geopolitical risks. In recent years, based on the close attention to energy security, the competition between developing and developed countries to obtain overseas energy resources has increased significantly. In addition, environmental pollution affects our health in many ways, and air pollution causes the following diseases: ①respiratory diseases; ②gastrointestinal problems; ③skin problems; ④eye problems; ⑤heart problems; ⑥other health problems. Some poor countries cannot have a sound health care system like the developed countries, and most of the rural residents far away from the power grid get sick due to air pollution. The poor health of the labor force will seriously affect the country’s economic growth.

Therefore, energy, economy, environment and climate change, as well as medical care are interrelated. For the sustainable development of economy and industry in the future, these problems must be solved together. In addition, in order to avoid the next energy crisis and solve environmental problems, the existing breakthrough is to discuss issues such as energy-saving technologies and new renewable energy technologies.

What is current energy scenario?

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted in the World Energy Outlook that the global primary energy demand will increase by 1.5% annually from 2007 to 2030, from 12,000 Mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent) or more to 16,800 Mtoe, an overall increase of 40%. . Figure 1.3 shows the world energy structure in 2008 and 2030 in the energy structure reference plan, which is based on current policies. World Petroleum Magazine pointed out: assuming that under such consumption rates and economic conditions, global oil reserves will be depleted in about 43 years, coal can be used for about 417 years, and natural gas can be used for 167 years. According to the current policy, the IEA estimates in the reference plan that the scale of the total energy structure is expected to increase from 11294.9Mtoe in 2008 to 17014Mtoe in 2030. Fossil fuels such as coal, oil, natural gas, etc. are still the main sources of primary energy in the world, and their use accounted for 50% of the overall increase in the period from 2008 to 2030. In terms of numbers alone, during the forecast period, the demand for coal will increase the most, followed by natural gas and oil. Although oil is still the most important fuel in the primary energy structure by 2030, its share will drop from the current 34% to 30%. The contribution of renewable energy in the total energy structure of the four developed countries of Iceland, Norway, Sweden and Finland is respectively 73%, 60%, 26% and 23%. However, France, Sweden, Switzerland and Belgium have 40%, 37%, 24% and 22% of nuclear energy in their energy mix. Interestingly, Iceland’s energy structure has the world’s most renewable energy (72.6%), while fossil fuels are only 274%. At the other extreme, the performance of the United States in the energy structure is not encouraging, because it strongly relies on fossil fuels (86%), while nuclear energy and renewable energy account for only 8% and 6%, respectively. In addition, it is worth mentioning that the countries that rely on fossil fuels are Australia (97%), Ireland (97%) and Indonesia (97.8%). Their economies are almost entirely dependent on fossil fuels. These results indicate that the energy model should be structurally adjusted in real life.

As of 2008, about 60% of the world’s proven oil reserves are located in the Middle East countries, while 57% of the natural gas reserves are mainly distributed in three countries: Russia, Iran and Qatar. Except for the Middle East and South American countries, the global coal reserves are more evenly distributed globally. The Middle East and African countries have abundant energy resources, which are sufficient to meet the current world’s energy needs.

Therefore, many developed and developing countries invest in Latin America, Africa and Asia to obtain sufficient energy resources. In fact, the recent political interests of some countries in Africa have shown their concern for energy security issues. In major energy-producing regions, political instability due to accidents or natural disasters and the break of energy production and distribution chains have further aggravated the worries of energy-consuming countries. Individual consuming countries will continue to face special energy security issues, which are related to many factors such as cost, geography, politics and relations with producers. Diversified oil and natural gas supply may be a strategic policy of many countries, which can improve energy security, but does not solve the problem of climate change.